Growth forecasts for m-payments too optimistic

Growth forecasts for m-payments may have been too optimistic, a report on global payments has warned.

Growth forecasts for m-payments may have been too optimistic, a report on global payments has warned.

The World Payments Report 2013, by Capgemini and RBS, said that industry analysts may have over-estimated the growth of electronic and mobile payments. The report said that, on analysis of 2012 data, there were large gaps between estimates and actual transactions.

Phil Gomm, director of banking, cards and payments at Capgemini Australia, said: "We are questioning some of the assumptions that the analysts have made.

"The analysts have over-anticipated just how long it is going to take us to get pervasive near-field-communication [NFC] technology to the point of sale. They think it is going to happen a lot faster, whereas we see a much slower curve."

Industry expectations are that m-payment transactions will grow 58.5% annually to 28.9bn transactions in 2014, and e-payments are expected to grow by 18.1% yearly in the same period to a total of 34.8bn transactions.

However, analysis of leading players in both payment sectors tells a different story. Once all the major players are accounted for, actual volumes of e-payments fall short of the estimate by 16%, while for m-payments the gap is a massive 50%.

Although the report admits that it does not have figures for smaller players, it warns that some of this gap may well result from over-optimism on the part of industry analysts.

In recent years, increased penetration of smartphones and internet has driven growth, along with more optimistic forecasts. Gomm said: "I am not a strong supporter that NFC is going to support the uptake [of m-payments].

"It is more about being able to initiate a transaction when you are nowhere near a point of sale device."

 

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